WMO says El Niño is entrenched and set to strengthen; KNUST scientist urges Ghana to prepare

Pinned summary · as of 21:09

The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño has taken hold in the tropical Pacific and should grow stronger before the end of 2026. A KNUST climate scientist, Dr Jeffrey N. A. Aryee, has set out what that could mean for Ghana, stressing that the local effect is far less certain than the global signal.

What we know

• In its latest outlook, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) describes El Niño as firmly in place across the tropical Pacific, with further strengthening expected towards the close of 2026 and a very high chance it lasts until February 2027.
• The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) puts the probability of a very strong El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27 above 90%.
• Dr Aryee of the Department of Meteorology and Climate Science at KNUST says a powerful El Niño worldwide does not translate automatically into an equally powerful effect in Ghana, because the country's climate responds to several interacting systems.
• Research he cites from the Ho Municipality found lower average yearly rainfall and weaker major-season rain in El Niño years than in La Niña years, although El Niño explained only a share of the variation.
• Records for Accra spanning more than a century indicate that El Niño tends to reduce rainfall in the major rainy season, notably in May and June.
• Dr Aryee says El Niño should not be treated as an automatic sign of drought in Ghana. Depending on how it interacts with Atlantic conditions and the monsoon, some areas could see weaker rainfall, shifted timing, extended dry spells or rains that stop early, with agriculture especially exposed because most farming depends on rain.
• The WMO expects a greater chance of above-normal temperatures over much of the world's land during this El Niño period. Dr Aryee warns that heat combined with drier patches could raise heat stress, evaporation and demand for water in Ghana, touching farming, health, livestock, water supplies and electricity use.
• Dr Aryee notes that even a season with less rain overall can bring short bursts of extremely heavy downpours, so flood risk in fast-growing cities such as Accra and Kumasi does not disappear.
• He argues that the Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) should keep its seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts at the centre of planning, since only Ghana-specific forecasts show how global conditions play out locally.

What's disputed / unconfirmed

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  Chale News reported that the WMO's temperature outlook covers Ghana by name; MyJoyOnline's account refers only to much of the world's land areas, so the Ghana-specific reading is not backed by a second report.
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  Chale News reported that Dr Aryee highlighted Accra and Kumasi on account of urban heat, and urged farm agencies, water managers, health authorities and disaster bodies to sharpen advisories, model reservoir scenarios, prepare for extreme heat and watch for both dry spells and sudden downpours. These details were not carried in the other report.
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  MyJoyOnline reported Dr Aryee as saying El Niño is not a forecast of disaster and that preparedness, rather than alarm or complacency, is the right response; this has not been reported elsewhere.

Why it matters for Ghana

Farmers across Ghana depend on rain, so a late start, a long dry spell or an early end to the season could hurt planting and yields even if total rainfall looks normal. Households in Accra and Kumasi may face hotter weather, higher demand for water and electricity, and still have to guard against flash floods. Dr Aryee's point is that GMet's local forecasts, not the global headline, should guide how agencies and farmers respond.