S&P Global warns Ghana's gold and reserve drive could cost up to 2.6% of GDP a year

Pinned summary · as of 15:39

S&P Global has warned that Ghana's effort to stockpile foreign exchange and gold could put a heavy load on public finances and wear away recent gains. The agency puts the yearly cedi cost of the reserve programme at between 0.8% and 2.6% of GDP, and says the central bank's weak balance sheet adds to the pressure.

What we know

• S&P Global cautioned that stockpiling both foreign exchange and gold comes with a steep fiscal price that may undo some of the recent progress in Ghana's public finances.
• The agency estimated that carrying out the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation programme (GANRAP) could cost the government 0.8% to 2.6% of annual GDP in local currency.
• According to S&P Global, the Bank of Ghana ran an operating deficit of $1.25 billion for 2025, and its negative equity deepened to 6.7% of GDP.
• A phased programme to restore the Bank of Ghana's capital has started and is due to continue until 2032. S&P Global expects that the government will probably have to issue more debt to pay for it.
• S&P Global observed that the government is changing the regulation and taxation of gold, including a switch to a sliding-scale royalty meant to lower fiscal costs. It warned that external shocks, such as dearer international fuel linked to the Middle East war, could wipe out some of that benefit.
• Price growth eased to 5% by August 2026, well below the 54.1% peak of December 2022. S&P Global said prices have begun climbing again and that rising fuel and transport costs are starting to hit the economy, though it has so far coped fairly well with the fallout from the Middle East war.

What's disputed / unconfirmed

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  MyJoyOnline reported S&P Global as saying that the gold sector is what is driving Ghana's reserve accumulation. This detail was not reported in the same terms by the other publications that covered the assessment.
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  Citi Newsroom reported that GANRAP aims to raise import cover markedly through gold-backed reserves, and that S&P Global said the cost could complicate fiscal management if other demands on government money increase. Neither point was reported by the other publications that covered the assessment.
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  Chale News reported that S&P Global said gold supplied over two-thirds of Ghana's merchandise exports in 2025 (more than 66%) and that agriculture accounts for about 20% of GDP. It also reported the agency's warning that an El Niño-related farming disruption or a slide in world gold prices could set back the fight against inflation.
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  Chale News reported that S&P Global listed losses in the value of foreign holdings, liquidity-absorption costs, and programmes such as GANRAP as possible causes of the central bank's negative equity. It also said the agency described the reform agenda as early-stage and untested through a full economic cycle, and cited weak institutions and high debt servicing costs as limits on the credit rating.
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  Ghana Business News reported that S&P Global expects the creation of GoldBod to shield the Bank of Ghana from gold-trading losses, but that open-market sterilisation will stay costly and the central bank will remain under strain. It gave GoldBod's running costs while implementing GANRAP as close to 1.5% of GDP a year.
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  Ghana Business News also reported S&P Global's view that public debt may fall more slowly than headline deficits imply, with nearly 41% of it in foreign currency, so that exchange-rate swings could materially affect the debt-to-GDP ratio.

Why it matters for Ghana

The reserve programme is paid for in cedis by the state, so a yearly bill of up to 2.6% of GDP competes with spending on roads, schools and hospitals. A central bank with a large capital gap may also lead the government to borrow more, and taxpayers ultimately service that debt. At the same time, dearer fuel and transport are raising costs for traders and households in places such as Accra, Kumasi and Takoradi just as prices edge up again.