Ghana holds about six weeks of fuel cover as Gulf disruption keeps pump prices under pressure

Pinned summary · as of 05:20

Ghana has petroleum in store to cover roughly six weeks of demand, even as trouble around the Strait of Hormuz keeps world oil prices high. Some fuel companies raised their pump prices when a new pricing window opened on 16 September, while Brent crude traded above US$100 a barrel during the month.

What we know

• Stock levels stand at about six weeks of cover. The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) said Ghana holds not less than six weeks of supply, and the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC) gave the average stock cover as 6.0 weeks in its latest half-year analysis.
• Brent crude traded above US$100 a barrel in September. The Vaultz News put it at US$104.68 in a report dated 21 September.
• Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has lifted the cost of crude and refined products worldwide. The Vaultz News and MyJoyOnline, the latter citing COMAC, both link this to pressure on Ghana's import-dependent fuel market and to higher domestic prices.
• Petrol carries a price floor of GH₵16 a litre in the 16 September window set by the NPA, and the diesel floor is GH₵16.77.
• Some fuel companies raised pump prices when that window opened, according to Onua Online, while others held their earlier rates. COMAC's report, as relayed by MyJoyOnline, ties higher pump prices this year to the Middle East conflict.
• Ghana still depends on imported refined products for a large part of its supply, although output from the Sentuo Oil Refinery is now adding a local source.

What's disputed / unconfirmed

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  Onua Online reported that Star Oil lifted Super to GH₵16.77 a litre (it was GH₵15.43), diesel to GH₵17.77 (previously GH₵17.26) and RON95 to GH₵18.97 (previously GH₵17.97). It added that Goil PLC and Shell had not announced increases. No other report has verified these pump figures.
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  COMAC's analysis, reported by MyJoyOnline, says local production of petroleum products jumped by 350.7%, reaching 878.33 million litres between January and June. Imports fell 12.67% to 3.43 billion litres, and consumption grew 12.24% to 4.06 billion litres. These numbers come from COMAC alone.
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  The same COMAC analysis says average pump prices ran above January levels by 19.9% (petrol), 29.4% (diesel) and 22.9% (LPG). It adds that closing stocks rose 91% to 840.64 million litres and that LPG cover was only 3.1 weeks. Other reports have not confirmed these figures.
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  COMAC also says Brent climbed from US$75 at the start of the year to a high of US$115–US$120, that ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz fell by about 96%, and that Gulf output dropped by an estimated 6.7 million barrels a day. It reports Sentuo as producing 91.3% of local refinery output and Tema Oil Refinery as producing nothing over the six months. Only MyJoyOnline carries these claims.
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  Dr Riverson Oppong, COMAC's chief executive, forecast a 60% cut in Gulf oil output because producers would run out of storage space. “Very soon, the Gulfians are going to reduce crude oil production by 60%,” he said. This is a projection reported only by The Vaultz News.
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  NPA chief executive Godwin Edudzi Tamakloe said the agency's worry has moved from availability to cost: “No, my major concern now is price.” The Vaultz News also reported the NPA saying more cargoes are at sea and that safeguards exist against a repeat of the 2014-2015 difficulties. No other report has carried these statements.
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  BOSTenergies said smaller fuel exports to Burkina Faso and Mali stem from revamp work at its Bolgatanga depot and do not signal a coming shortage in Ghana. The Vaultz News is the only report of this explanation.
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  The government said expanding the Sentuo and Tema refineries could eventually meet about 70% of Ghana's demand for refined products. The Chamber of Bulk Oil Distributors has cautioned that more local refining does not automatically bring lower pump prices. Both points appear only in The Vaultz News.
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  The group CUTS International put Ghana's demurrage bill on imported petroleum last year at close to US$60 million; demurrage is the fee charged when ships overstay at berth. The Vaultz News noted this is the group's own estimate rather than an audited government total.

Why it matters for Ghana

Diesel and petrol drive trotro and truck fares, farm work, mining and the cost of moving food to markets in Accra, Kumasi and Tamale, so any movement at the pump is felt in household budgets. Stocks that cover about six weeks ease fears of queues, but the NPA's own stated worry is price. Because most refined fuel is still imported and paid for in dollars, swings in world oil prices and the cedi feed quickly into what Ghanaians pay.