Dangote pursues Nigerian share sale and Lamu refinery start in Kenya as protests and a court case surface

Pinned summary · as of 15:51

Two refinery ventures tied to Aliko Dangote are in the news together: a public share offer for his Nigerian refinery and a planned refinery at Lamu on Kenya's coast. Reports describe strong investor interest in Nigeria, and a land dispute, street protests and a court case around the Kenyan site.

What we know

• Two separate developments involve Aliko Dangote's refinery business: an initial public offering (IPO) tied to his refinery in Nigeria, and a planned refinery at Lamu in Kenya.

What's disputed / unconfirmed

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  The Ghana Report said Dangote hopes to sign up 10 million small investors in the Nigerian share offer, and called it the largest of its kind on the continent. It put the sum to be raised at $1.6 billion, with the refinery valued at $47 billion. MyJoyOnline gave a different figure, saying the sale of 4.1 million ordinary shares was meant to bring in up to $2.1bn, so the amount remains unsettled.
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  According to the Ghana Report, subscriptions close on 13 October and the smallest purchase is 10 shares. Dangote was quoted as saying the offer is meant to let ordinary Nigerians and Africans own part of the refinery, and he framed it as a way for workers and entrepreneurs to share in its growth as well as a fundraising step. Only one report carries this account.
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  The Ghana Report said the proceeds would go towards a $14-billion programme to lift the refinery's daily crude intake from close to 700,000 barrels to 1.4 million barrels by 2029. MyJoyOnline separately said Dangote plans to double the plant's capacity. The timetable and cost come from one report only.
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  The Ghana Report, citing remarks by Nigerian Exchange chief executive Jude Chiemeka to Bloomberg, said Nigeria's 243 million people include roughly 2.7 million active investors, and that the offer could quadruple retail shareholder accounts. These figures have not been confirmed by another report.
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  The Ghana Report said investment apps in Nigeria struggled within minutes of the launch and several went offline. It cited Bamboo co-founder Yanmo Omorogbe, who is also its chief operating officer, as telling Reuters that traffic on the Bamboo app rose to ten times normal within half an hour. No second report has verified this.
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  The Ghana Report, citing Bloomberg, said Dangote would still hold over 80% of the shares after the sale and that, on Bloomberg's calculation, his wealth could climb 64% to as much as $58.6 billion. These are calculations reported by a single publication.
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  Energy News Africa reported that Kenya and Dangote would hold a groundbreaking event for the Lamu refinery, designed for 700,000 barrels a day, on Wednesday, 30 September despite a pending lawsuit, and that Dangote has pledged KSh2 trillion ($17 billion). MyJoyOnline and The Vaultz News put the project at $16 billion. MyJoyOnline said building is due to start on 1 November, while The Vaultz News described the ceremony as having taken place and said construction should finish within 40 months.
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  Energy News Africa reported that 133 residents of Chandavai in Lamu County sued, accusing the government of unlawfully taking the land for the refinery, and that the Malindi Environment and Land Court ordered the land left as it stands until a hearing on 14 October. The residents' accusation is not established and the court order is reported by this publication alone.
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  MyJoyOnline and The Vaultz News reported that some residents took to the streets before the ceremony demanding more compensation for land used by the project. Energy News Africa said the Chandavai protesters sought payment for a 7,000-acre area. Dangote dismissed the protests as the work of local fuel marketers and international interests, and said the company took only the part of the land it needed from what the government offered. Compensation claims and Dangote's response have not been independently verified.
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  MyJoyOnline reported Dangote brushing off the protests and asking why anyone would protest against their own development. He said the refinery would go ahead and be ready by 2030, a timeline The Vaultz News also reported.
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  Energy News Africa reported that President William Ruto, speaking on Tuesday during a tour of Kilifi and Kwale counties, said the Lamu project would proceed regardless of court orders and resistance. He blamed “disgruntled opposition sponsors” for working against the venture, said those who went to court were backing the cases and opposed the project, and claimed the opposition had turned against it after its demand for shares was refused. No response from the opposition was reported.
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  Energy News Africa also reported Ruto saying he would not tolerate another act of sabotage against investors and that every Kenyan would get a fair chance to buy shares in the company. He further said Dangote had been frustrated repeatedly under former President Uhuru Kenyatta before taking some investments elsewhere, and that a pipeline Uganda had planned through Kenya moved to Uganda after a dispute over shareholding.
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  Ruto forecast that foreign direct investment in Kenya would total $6 billion to $7 billion over the coming year and said, “An investor does not want conditions; they want incentives.” The forecast and remark were reported by Energy News Africa only.
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  Save Lamu co-founder Walid Ali told MyJoyOnline that residents fear harm to the local environment, want the findings of the environmental impact assessment published along with proposed mitigation, and say the company has spoken only to the government and not to the community. The Vaultz News also reported him calling environmental worries a central concern for residents. Dangote and the company were not reported responding to the claim of no community engagement.
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  MyJoyOnline and The Vaultz News reported Dangote saying the project could provide 60,000 jobs at the peak of construction. The Vaultz News added that he argued East Africa's fuel consumption gives the refinery a large enough regional market, and that he cited his Lekki refinery in Nigeria as proof that such projects can be built and repeated. He also said Lamu was chosen over Tanga in Tanzania for its deeper waters and firm ground, and urged African countries to stop exporting unprocessed resources. These are Dangote's own claims and forecasts.
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  MyJoyOnline reported that Kenya's Energy and Petroleum Minister Opiyo Wandayi said siting the plant at Lamu does not mean it will depend on regional crude, since refineries buy oil on an open market. Dangote pointed to Singapore as a refining hub without its own oil output. MyJoyOnline also said the site will house a power station of 1,000 megawatts meant to serve Dangote's operations and other industries, and that Dangote described the power supply as ready to plug in. It added that Dangote has about $50bn of projects in the pipeline, including plans for 10,000 megawatts of generation across Africa by 2030.
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  The Vaultz News reported that Ruto hosted the ceremony, joined by former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo and the presidents of Uganda, Ethiopia, Togo and Benin, with senior delegations from Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan and Tanzania standing in for their leaders. This account comes from one report.

Why it matters for Ghana

Nigeria's refinery and its expansion plans matter to Ghanaian fuel importers and to investors who follow the regional market, because West African fuel supply and pricing are closely linked. MyJoyOnline noted that international crude prices still shape what motorists pay at the pump, so a new plant does not by itself settle prices in Accra or Kumasi. The Lamu dispute shows how large energy projects can collide with land rights and compensation, a question Ghanaian communities near mines, ports and pipelines also face.